It’s pretty bad.

I’m glad that in our world of forex trading, stocks just aren’t welcomed! In fact, I have been in favor of alternative investments instead of stocks and the economically-sensitive real estate sector for years.

Since my post, “Stock Market Trades Below Key Support Level,” the Dow has fallen further. Just look at this cool chart to compare the magnitue of our little, never-ending stock market roller coaster ride in the US:

Click on the chart to enlarge it, then hit the Back button to return to this blog post.

The current bear market, which began in late 2007, is still alive and well. So far, only the extremely painful bear market of the Great Depression era (grey graph) is greater in magnitude. It actually took the stock market during that time a painstaking 25 years (from 1929 to 1954) to recover and exceed the peak it established before the bear market began.

Even though no one knows how long the current bear market in US stocks will last, a VERY SLOW recovery (also known as an L-shaped recovery) is a likely outcome.

I strongly believe that traditional investors who haven’t already realized the colossal risks inherent in stocks, will certainly do so during this slow-motion recovery period; especially those who give in to the “buy-at-dirt-cheap-prices” recommendations of many of today’s traditional investment advisors and financial planners.

This realization of the “true risks” of stocks might cause investors (both domestic and foreign) to “reprice” equities in their heads for decades to come, paying relatively lower multiples for each dollar of a company’s earnings. Consequently, annual stock market returns going forward could drop significantly - way below the historical 10%-mark.

Even if we assume a 5% annual rate of return for stocks from this point on, it will take the market over 15 years to recover to the peak value established in 2007 (near 14,200 on the Dow). Is the wait really worth it?

Due to the significant risks and opportunity costs I feel traditional investors will face going forward, I plan on writing a series of blog posts to address these issues in greater detail. My objective will be to educate investors and help them understand the true risk of the investment decisions they make, as well as the advantages of alternative investments.

I think this information is priceless and will help investors pull away from the traditional stock-market-and-real-estate-masses group; a must to survive any future crisis.

The hits just keep on coming as the Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow), the most popular US stock market index, closed below the 50%-retracement level.

Traders familiar with technical analysis know that when the price of anything falls 50% from a peak, it tends to be “supported” from falling further - but if this level doesn’t hold, the price could accelerate quickly to the downside.

The all-time high for the Dow was 14,198.10 on October 11, 2007. If we take half of that level, we come up with almost 7,100. Last Friday, the Dow closed around 40 points below this level - leaving many wondering what would happen on Monday. Well; on the first day of trading this week, the market was basically on a downhill slide from start to finish, causing the Dow to close at 6,763.29.

Now that we’re obviously past the 50% mark, what may lie in store for the most popular financial market in America? Probably nothing pretty.

Hold on to your hats ladies and gentlemen. My guess is that the wild ride will continue, as the US keeps rewarding crooked giants like AIG and speculators who gambled their ASSets away in real estate.

When will investors learn that the world does not revolve around stocks?!?!? Do I hear anyone say “forex?”

During today’s global banking crisis, more and more day traders are worried about the safety of their funds if their forex broker goes under.

In the United States, the NFA (National Futures Association) does not protect against insolvency of forex brokers. Nevertheless, I believe that FX (foreign exchange) remains one of the best asset classes for active traders.

That’s one of the main reasons why many traders and investors are switching brokers. Different jurisdictions offer access to brokers and banks that offer account protection in Forex. Some of these firms offer the MT4 (MetaTrader) platform, which has become sort of a standard in the retail forex trading arena despite some critics. The execution quality many of these trading firms are providing has also improved - and many claim there’s no intervention from a human dealing desk.

So the next time someone recommends for you to open an account with a brokerage firm just because of NFA membership, think again. You need to do your homework and find out just how “safe” your trading or investing account with each brokerage firm is.

Day traders; this may sound a bit dramatic, but at the rate the SEC is going with the regulation of short sellers, this might become the next headline!

In my blog post yesterday, “SEC Adopts New Short-selling Rules,” I commented on the SEC’s latest move to regulate naked short-selling. Even though I agree on restricting this activity, I expressed my opposition to wining politicians wanting to ban ALL short-selling of financial companies like banks and insurers. Banning short-selling goes against the principles of free market economics, where supply and demand dictate the price of a commodity. It makes total sense for traders to want to sell stocks short of companies that are in trouble - and now, what a better bunch to sell the crap out of than the glutton banks and insurance companies that fattened their rear ends out of the latest real estate mega bubble?

Early this week, it seemed that the excess was beginning to get squeezed out of the market at full speed when stocks began to suffer severe losses; but then, what happened later in the week? Regulators stepped in with their sloppy, patch-up-the-holes mentality and began regulating the “evil” short sellers. Things got even more dramatic today when the shorting of 799 financial stocks was banned altogether.

In the MarketWatch article, “SEC bans short selling in 799 financial stocks,” SEC Chairman Christopher Cox is quoted saying,

“The emergency order temporarily banning short selling of financial stocks will restore equilibrium to markets. This action, which would not be necessary in a well-functioning market, is temporary in nature and part of the comprehensive set of steps being taken by the Federal Reserve, the Treasury and the Congress.”

That’s just too funny! With the phrase, “restore equilibrium,” the Chairman seems to imply that the market has to go up to be in balance. Nonsense! These financial stocks should suffer for their excessive greed. Why should they go up? The same holds true when he states that the short selling restrictions won’t be necessary in a “well-functioning market.” If it ain’t going up, something must be broken?!?!?

Fellow stock day trader, this is why I strongly suggest that you don’t day trade stocks. What for? The stock market is one of the most manipulated markets in the world with blatant favoritism for rising prices. The forex market is a much “cleaner” and “purer” market for day trading. I strongly suggested that you take our free, live day trading webinar and find out more.

But what about for “longer term” investments; “aren’t stocks the best asset class for that?” - you ask. I know that financial planners and stock brokers have been preaching this since the dinosaurs, but that’s all they know. It’s one of the big lies our society is founded on.

If you want to learn about alternatives that, in my honest opinion, are much better than stocks for the long run, dare to give us a call (305-600-4651). But please note: you will have to make an important choice when you dial - if you want to take the red pill or the blue pill. It will all depend on whether or not you want to find out how deep the rabbit hole goes!

“The SEC [Securities and Exchange Commission] adopts rules against naked short-selling,” writes Marcy Gordon of The Associated Press. I laughed my assets off when I read this headline just a few hours ago. This is why I love forex (or foreign exchange) for day trading so much better than stocks.

I’m not saying that naked short-selling should be allowed, but things like this always happen in the stock market during times of crisis (like today when the Dow dropped over 4%). There are so many stupid regulations in the US stock market to control the price of stocks that one might wonder how “free” of a market the stock market really is.

You never hear forex day traders blurb out terms such as “curbs in” or “halted for news pending,” when referring to the buying and selling of Euros, Dollars, and Yens. It’s really quite silly how regulators attempt to control periods of high volatility in the stock market. Many traditional investors and traders (by that, I mean folks who believe that stocks are the best thing since sliced bread) actually swallow the moronic excuse that such artificial price controls are there to protect investors when the world is “freaking out.” Nonsense.

A free market should be allowed to fluctuate by the laws of supply and demand. If traders want to take the stock of a greedy insurance company who got caught with its hand in the real-estate-bubble cookie jar to zero, so be it (anyone got life insurance with AIG? :). Why does the government have to use my tax dollars to bail them out?!?!

Let the system implode from its own avarice I say. We’ve been screaming bubble when it comes to stocks and real estate for over three years now during our managed account webinars. The best way to get rid of a bubble is to let it blow up; not to patch it up with rules against short selling. If you’re trading stocks, how else would you make money when the market is getting hammered other than by selling short?

Apparently, our government doesn’t even want us to sell short stocks anymore. In the same AP article, Gordon states, “Sens. Charles Schumer and Hillary Clinton, New York Democratics, asked the SEC to temporarily ban all short-selling, not just naked short-selling, of stocks of major financial companies.” That one made me pee in my pants (can I say that here?).

If you are a day trader or want to take up day trading, please do yourself a favor and get out of the stock market. Trading currencies, in my humble opinion, is much better. If you don’t believe me, sign up for our free day trading webinar by clicking here.

If you want to read more about the naked short selling mess in the Associated Press article, here it is: SEC adopts rules against naked short-selling

The first “Becoming a Professional Day Trader” live webinar was officially delivered this Thursday. We actually had two live training sessions on Thursday; one at 3 PM EST and one at 8 PM. We were very happy with the outcome.

During the webinar, different day trading strategies were covered in full detail on the MetaTrader platform. It was super cool seeing all the indicators come to life on the MT4 canvas in full color.

As mentioned during the webinar, our main objective is to incubate successful day traders that want to either trade their own accounts successfully or become professional forex money managers. Part of our goal is also to create a network of day traders who communicate and share ideas and experiences on an ongoing basis.

I would personally like to thank all of the attendees of this day trading webinar.

The new FX day trading webinars are off to a great start.

The launch date was August 7th - when we had the free trading webinar, “Understanding the Forex Market;” the first webinar in the series. Since that time, we’ve had pretty good feedback from the attendees during the webinars; which have ranged from aspiring day traders to existing stock and futures traders interested in the forex market.

The most important webinar in the series (”Becoming a Professional Day Trader“) will be taught for the first time this Thursday, August 21st. In my opinion, this is the most important training webinar and one that anyone that’s serious about making day trading a career should take.

Our objective with this day trading training program is simply to create successful day traders. Furthermore, traders who rise above the ranks and are consistent in their trading and risk management ability will also have the opportunity to manage money for others. Therefore, this training program may also propel interested investors and traders into a money management or professional trading career.

See you at our next webinar!

Our live tests on the Strategy Runner forex trading platform have been prolonged. The problem is that Strategy Runner employs a very cumbersome way to enter the market. When we started our tests, we didn’t think this would matter, but it does - especially when trading right after economic reports and news releases. Forex scalping becomes extremely difficult with the way the platform is currently set up.

In the next week or so, Strategy Runner agreed to add two additional buttons to their platform that will hopefully allow Nigel to enter and exit the market faster. This won’t solve all the problems (since the platform needs more modifications to meet our needs), but it should increase the quality of execution to an acceptable level. If this happens, we will inform clients at FXLQ to transfer their accounts to ODL.

MT4 Currenex Tests

On Friday we received the login information for the new MT4-Currenex project we have been waiting for. The brokerage firm involved still has to resolve the latency (delay) issues present, but even having something to test is progress. We will continue to monitor the platform and pricing. When everything is ready for live testing and we get to run some successful live trades, this might become another option for our forex traders.

New Forex Trading System

We will be testing a new, fully-automated forex day trading system next week that works directly with Currenex. It does not need MT4 or any other platform to run and the server where the program is installed is located in New York. Since all Currenex execution servers are also in New York, this should reduce execution delays significantly. I will let you know what the live results are once we have them. This might be another option for some of you to diversify.

New Forex Scalper

Next week we’ll also be running some live tests with an additional forex scalper. If these manual tests are successful, we’ll also start testing a fully automated version of the scalper’s strategy.

I know we don’t have a solution for our FXLQ clients yet, but I know that we soon will - the [near] future looks very promising.

In Day Trading the News, I discussed the popular news day trading strategy as it applies to forex (foreign exchange) online trading.

Trading the news does not just apply to currencies though. Many traders day trade during economic or news releases using stocks too, even though I like currencies better for this. Why do I prefer forex (or currencies) for day trading news?

One word…”simplicity.” A currency is like the stock of a particular country. When it comes to the stock market, a stock represents ownership for a particular company. Whereas there are tens of thousands of stocks to choose from, there are only a few major currencies available. This simplifies matters greatly when you’re going to day trade during news releases. In general, all you have to do is focus on a particular currency during each news release. You don’t have to worry about thousands of stocks.

Some of you might argue that in order to avoid having to worry about which stock to trade during news time, all you have to do is trade a stock index that represents the entire stock market (using stocks like Diamonds (DIA) or Spiders (SPY), which mimic the Dow and the S&P500 respectively). While it is true that day trading a stock index simplifies matters somewhat, I feel that it is easier to determine how the outcome of an economic statistic is going to affect the price of a country’s currency than the average value of its stock market.

So currencies still earn my vote over stocks for the online day trading of news.

Day trading the news or “news trading” usually refers to the popular practice in the forex market of day trading online a specific currency after the release of an economic report or statistic.

Each potentially market-moving report is released at a specific date and time every month - and there’s a consensus estimate for each released figure. Generally speaking, how much higher or lower than the estimate the actual numbers come in will dictate how a day trader will react (by buying or selling a particular currency).

Note that day trading the news is not the opening of a position before the report is released betting on a particular outcome. That is more like gambling (or financial suicide). No one knows in advance where the numbers will come in, so trying to predict the outcome is an extremely dangerous and futile endeavor.

Even though forex news day trading is risky by nature, the use of some specific tools might slightly increase the odds of day trading the news successfully. Some of these are: using a fast, reliable news service like Bloomberg, day trading online on a platform that offers one-click execution, and using limits rather than market orders to enter the market.

News day trading is not for the faint-hearted trader, but it can make forex online trading very profitable for those who approach it correctly.